Where did the Web 3.0 go and why is it not here yet??

Prelude:

The content that I am planning for this week is something which is thought provoking but is rather a forgotten concept. We all know when the website era took off (and equally known the notorious dotcom bust). This was around the 1990-95. This was later christened as web 1.0.

Later came the era of user driven content, which is commonly termed as the web 2.0. It started with blogging, later started getting popular with sites like Wikipedia and came to its peak with youtube and facebook. Of course there are lots of web 2.0 sites you can also refer to my earlier blog on them. This web 2.0 picked up in 1997-2002 years that is when it is started and saw a humungous growth.

But going by a preliminary math, the web 3.0 should now be atleast at its half peak during this time. But still it is not found anywhere.What is holding it back, why is the web 3.0 not prevalent yet.

Read on to know why….

Reasons why there is no Web 3.0 yet….

1.       Definition of Web 3.0:

Just like any trend in the technology, the naming convention comes only after a trend has got popular. There are few fluidic definitions of web 3.0. One definition mentions that any website which makes money or revenue out of Web 2.0 can be termed as web 3.0.

But one definition that I love the most is “Any personalized content that is driven by machines” now it might sound similar to Web 1.0. But stands at a different magnitude.

The content is to be developed by machines alright, but it has to be personalized too. Its ages ahead of Web 2.0 even. This might sound impossible, but according to many researches right amount of efforts will surely result in a better preposition. So for all one might know it might be prevalent already.

2.       Concerns of security and privacy:

It might sound preliminary, but actually any company which tries to get closer to its customer places itself in a “catch 22” situation.

The nearer it gets to customers the further the legal requirements make them go. Like for example, recently Apple Inc. was bashed by all for tracking its customers location. Now how do you expect your phone to generate local searches without supplying your location tracking or your route information without getting your track. Just like that even Andriod has been acussed by many. It’s a balancing act, that companies are forced to resort.

It is has been seen almost impossible to prepare an algorithm without storing personal information. People expect personalized information without disclosing information, which like I mentioned is a catch 22 situation.

3.       Why it has high chances that it will come up first in BRIC countries (specifically in China)

The given that the developed countries are very strict on their regulations on not storing the personal information/ tracking information of the customers, I have a strong feeling the BRIC countries, or rather the developing countries will be the one who will come up with web 3.0 style sites first, even before the developed countries. Developed countries might catch up later.

The primary reason is that the regulations are not stringent, which enables one to make markets a test bed and build applications that enhance the web 3.0 experience.

The top web 2.0 proponents including Google, facebook will try out their applications in BRI market and the loads of local sites of web 2.0 in China (like Baidu, QQ, taobao and 163)  will surely try out options and come up with one for sure. Thus expect the development to Web 3.0 coming from these markets.

4.       Is it already there and we don’t realize it?

Another school of thought goes around saying that the web 3.0 is something that Google is currently working on. Going by my favorite definition of the Web 3.0 which is:

“Any personalized content that is driven by machines” one example among current sites is the Google news. Which creates content based on what the customer might like.

Google flu-trend (http://www.google.org/flutrends) is also one such example, the flu-trend site predicts occurrence for flu in any region based on number of people searching for flu related topics in that region.

Another story that goes around is the fact that Facebook is perfecting the model of web 3.0. There are many web pundits who believe that Facebook is working on a platform which will display ads on things that one might get interested in future days. This actually brings Facebook a step ahead of Google (that’s why Google is worried). The ads are driven purely based on topic discussed by that person in Facebook.

But as mentioned earlier, one common drawback in FB example is the privacy concern.

5.       Growth of Mobile platform

One real agreeable reason why web 3.0 never took off or rather kicked off is the presence of the mobile platform. This has changed the web game altogether, mainly with the increasing number of Smartphones in the market. People who were working on Web 3.0 are now engaging in developing Mobile Apps. With mobile platform getting into the game, the websites have become more like a medium than the end state. Thus one can say that the mobile platforms in a way have become the web 3.0. Sites like twitter, facebook and google got into having mobile apps.

In fact many still believe the mobile app is the web 3.0, as it is personalized and its machine generated content. Likewise many believe the App Store in iPhone and the Market in Android are in effect perfect examples of web 3.0.

They oblige to both the running definition of web 3.0. They derive revenue based predominantly on web 2.0 trends. Also as you are aware once a user logs into these sites he gets content on what he might like, which in most cases he ends up buying.

Imagine this by 2001 who would have thought that an app on flatulence would be one of the most liked applications. Space like App Store has brought ahead apps which was in customers mind but never came out.

Conclusion:

Going by the trend that we are seeing, I am guessing the web 3.0 won’t come at all. If at all it comes it will only be in markets where the customers are not bothered much about privacy or at the markets where the govt regulations are not strict on storing customers data. Just like how Japan lead the world in mobile telecom, China might end up leading the world in mechanized user content delivery.

Or like I mentioned in the first point, we might end up changing the definition of Web 3.0 and make mobile platform as Web 3.0

Do let me know your views by commenting or mailing me at ganesh.dg@gmail.com

Why companies with Zero Attrition tend to lose more than gain.

Prelude:

I understand my blogs have been generally about some upcoming trends till now, but I thought I should take time out to discuss on one issue that has been running in my mind for some time. This blog is with regard to the attrition in the organization and in projects.

I do understand both of these issues are of different magnitude, different causes and different effect. I am in fact not even going to compare the cause and effect of these attritions etc. and how much the organization suffers from these attrition figures. But my blog is actually a take on the counter-point about the attrition.

I am actually thinking of mentioning why some organization and in select cases why some project need to have attrition. I know this might not sound all that sensible and neither do I expect all to agree to what I have posted here as they are my personal views.

My hypothesis is any organization which actually boasts of 0% attrition actually has a lot of things to loose than to gain.

Reasons why attrition is required in organizations:

Though I can think of many reasons for why it is required. Let me also try to make few points clear here that attrition can be classified according to me as, top management attrition and lower level attrition. Find the reasons for my hypothesis below:

1.       Diminishing rate of satisfaction

To keep an employee interested in his job profile is a challenge. The law of diminishing returns does kick-in even on one of the most productive employees. Normally there are factors that keep the employees motivated in their work. It very natural that the satisfaction (or rather the kick) an employee had out of his first appreciation mail or the first hiked salary doesn’t reflect in the future increment or future appreciations. There are many ways to counter this, but the law keeps kicking-in frequently.

With respect to projects: the point to be noted is that this factor is not just restricted to organization level this case is true with many long-term projects as well. The amount of satisfaction with the first roll-out of a product goes down each time the team makes subsequent roll-outs. Eventually to goes to the point where the employee starts feeling that he is rather tied up with a project and gets a notion that he will be typecast in the market.

2.       Clogged sink / blocked vent syndrome

This is a syndrome which is normally faced by companies popular around the job market to be termed as “best employer”. The employee friendly policy of the company and the amount of pampering the company provides is never equaled by other companies. In fact it goes to the extent that even if the employee knows that he deserves a better salary he will not be ready to quit the company.

This ends up in a bottleneck situation, where one level of management doesn’t quit the company. If the company has expansion plans its OK. But if there are no plans of expansion (like the situation faced during most of the companies during recession) then it would be in a place where employees in a position below, spend years together in the same position, just because there are no vacant slots in the position above them.

This situation is similar to a clogged sink or a closed vent. The other end is an organization can experience bottleneck at bottom or at the top.

Clogged at the top is a situation, which the top management stays put for years together creating attrition in lower part. But clogged at the bottom is also a possibilities, one example would be many governmental organization (esp. India), where lower level grades seldom opt to quit the company owing to its employee friendly policy. But only the middle management and top management keeps rotating.

This scenario is true with the project management front. There are project where the PM for the project remains the same owing to his understanding of the business and his comfort level with the customer that for people working below him, there is no scope for growth at all. Likewise, when an on-site resources gets adjusted, the situation turns head-on where his manager has to make adjustment to suit the needs of his onsite coordinator.

Either ways, the organization might go, the end result remains the same there will be no satisfaction among the employees and end product will be a degraded one.

3.       Complacent employees

Complacency is more like a symptom of disease than the issue. It is a corollary of the diminishing returns of satisfaction. The amount of dedication or interest an employee puts into the first project slowly starts coming down for subsequent projects. Especially once and employee gets to understand the nuances of the duration of promotion or the factors leading to promotion. Then the employee tends to make sure those are concentrated more than his regular job.

For example if an employee realizes the visibility one has in the organization plays a major factor in promotion, then the tendency of him attempting to gain visibility is higher than performing his duties.

4.       Not thinking out of box – Smartness quotient of the team

We have heard of IQ of a person, but one other term to be familiar with is the smartness quotient of a team. This is generally how innovative and how smart the team works in order to achieve a given task. It might sound a simple term but many companies have failed in improving the smartness quotient of its top management or its project teams. This is mainly because the top management of that company has been the same and there has no person who had thought out of box.

Same is very true when a team is working on a mission, if the same team is getting involved in all the jobs the amount of smartness quotient the team carries seldom changes owing to no new way of handling a challenge. One example that is commonly quoted is how the companies like MS, Yahoo, and IBM (early on) did miss the bus when there was revolution happening in search, social networking or mobile operating systems market.

5.       Forced to promote unkempt employees

Recurring question companies have faced is to promote internally or to recruit a more experienced person externally.

Note that employee who stays in a company especially in an employee friendly company tends to be more costly than the market. An external recruit with the same amount of experience and agreeably better external exposure tends to be cheaper. But since these companies tend to be employee friendly they end up promoting internal candidate, thus in a way promoting sub-competent employees in the company. Of course, owing to the amount of time the employee has been in the company, he would have had more insight into the company but for an external facing role he is ill-experienced. It is indeed a dilemma every HR manager would have faced in his lifetime.  

6.       Succession planning – Job rotation:

One commonly used method to make sure the employees staying in the company are made to grow is by rotating them in roles where they are less similar with.  This practice termed as military method of succession planning ensures the resources are trained in various aspects to make them ready to face any position provided to them. In many companies its policies empower employees to demand rotation, as it is recognized more as a way for the employee to grow inorganically. This creates an unbalanced equilibrium in the levels below affecting productivity of the company.

Conclusion:

Frankly I accept that for every point made above does have many counter points, which I accept. But my view is any organization is heading nowhere if it is targeting a Zero attrition. In fact I would even go to extent of saying that a company or for that matter a project team tends to lose a lot if there is no attrition in it.

But note the fact that there is no ideal amount of attrition which can be prescribed. It tends to change based on the type of the vertical the company is dealing and also based on the amount of flexibility and smartness quotient the company has.

There are ways a company can counter this tendency, one is by standardize roles and position based on job than based on people. There are companies which do establish standards but seldom follow it. One small thumb rule is that product based company should targets less attrition, but a service based company can even ingest something even around 20% attrition with good leeway. Gone are the days when attritions were considered additional overheads to the companies. They no longer are bad…

Your views are welcome, either comment on this blog or mail your views to me at ganesh.dg@gmail.com

Impact of the four bigwigs of Web 2.0 in India?

Relevance of sites like Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn and GroupOn in India.

Prelude:

The idea of this blog is to understand the impact of Web 2.0 and how relevant are these sites in India. To take a few steps backwards, web 2.0 generally denotes “any website whose content is majorly driven by the website users”. But one question which has always been in everyone’s mind is how much economic value these web 2.0 websites derive and how much of these are relevant in a global scale not just restricted to US.

Initial superstars Web 2.0:

Though there were many start-ups in the web 2.0 area few managed to be popular during the early years. Especially, two popular instances of Web 2.0 portals which conquered everyone’s mind was

·         Wikipedia - which till today, serves as the epitome of user driven content.  Where users contribute to any topic in a jiffy, by adding content they have on the web

·         Youtube – which has made sure that most people, who wanted to express themselves or wanted to showcase their talent had a right platform to do so.  Even in these days one instance of such overnight youtube celebrity is the 10 yr old  Maria Aragon, who posted video of her version of song “Born this way”, which managed around 34 million hits even to impress Lady Gaga(link http://goo.gl/b0RJa) . In fact within few days CNN and BBC were knocking her door to get her interview/ live performance.

But both these ventures did not make much of excitement to the investors. Wikipedia is still operating as a non-profit establishment run by Wikimedia and Youtube ended up being acquired by Google. Thus no one ever got to know how much value they could garner in the open market.

Current bigwigs of Web 2.0, and its influence in India:

Then came the years 2006-10, when the Web 2.0 came unleash its actual strength.  Companies started modeling their platforms more to enable users driven content. Companies that came up are Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn and most recently Groupon. The amount of patronage these sites are gaining is increasing in great numbers. These sites have been adding an average of a million users per month. But these sites (except LinkedIn) have not gone into the market for IPO, three of them are (Private equity) funded. Thus keeping the potential investors guessing on what their implied value is.

One value drivers for these companies in current time would be their relevance / presence in markets like India and China. Given the fact that these markets have a mouthwatering number of potential users coupled with growing penetration of internet in these market one important question remains how relevant are these sites in China+India. Since Facebook and twitter are already blocked in China Indian relevance has grown more to these companies.

Let us have a look into the business models of these sites and see how much relevant they are in India, and how different their positioning are there in India.

1.       Facebook:

This site started more as a product of for project by a Harvard student, Mark Zuckerberg. But later it graduated into site, where people could actually find potential people to interact and date. Though there were sites doing similar function, what differentiated Facebook from other site was the “Relationship status” (which is not available in the new format), which enabled users to know who was available for picking. The site enabled people to update on what they were doing, for which their friends could view and respond, thus equaling a feeling of being around friend circle online. It also enabled friendship among people who belonged to their friend’s circle.

The site grew to 500 million users by 2010 and currently has 600 million registered users. If Facebook members were a separate country it would have been 3^rd biggest nation (current 3^rd has only 300 million population). The top most followed people in Facebook are Lady Gaga and Justin Bieber who have combined 67 mln followers equivalent to population of the 18^th largest country in terms of population.

-          But in India, Facebook has around 25 million users (src: http://goo.gl/85GFE) and the site is rarely used for new networking. It is mainly to get in touch with your relatives, especially those not living in their own town. This was a model of usage, which even the founders had not thought of initially. Not that there is not networking in India, its just primary use for Indians are to get in touch with relatives and very close friends. If fact, any request for friendship from an unknown person always met the fate of rejection, which in a way is contradictory to the actual intent of the site.

Moreover, the other part is the users generally do no update their status at all. Everyone is interested to understand what is happening in other’s life. Only updates are in generally made when there is a personal function in the family or when one travels. But the actual notion of “What’s in your mind?” rarely gets reported.

2.       Twitter:

Twitter, which initially started to make use of the mobile platforms in developed market, is popularly referred to as micro-blogging site. It allows users to express themselves within 140 characters. Before the inception of smart phones, this was the only way one could stay in touch with the networked contacts. In fact, this made sure the celebrities used it a lot. That was because Twitter did not need one to sit in front of their system to stay in touch with their contacts/ fans. The additional feature of having followers, made sure celebrities were followed without being disturbed by useless updates of their fellow fans (this format was later adopted by FB too). But in the age of smartphones, twitter is now evolving into a web application more than a mobile platform application.

-          In India, twitter is only used more as a smartphone app than thro SMS. The penetration of twitter is very minimal, especially since the smartphone penetration is very less. The only ones who normally are on twitter are those who have visited western countries.

-          This can also be attributed to the fact that not that many celebrities are on twitter in India. The persons with most number of follower in India are Shashi Tharoor (a politician), next comes Priyanka Chopra(actress). Both of them tweet something around 20 message  a week, other them third stands Tendulkar followed by 7 more celebrities who altogether tweet hardly 40 tweets per week. This has ensured the interest on twitter is very minimal. Thus unless someone is interested in what is happening in western countries there is hardly any content on twitter for someone in India.

3.       LinkedIn:

LinkedIn is a professional networking site. It is said to be the Facebook of professionals seeking to network. There have been companies which had made sure their employees are registered in the linkedin. In fact at one point of time it was even thought to be unprofessional not to have a linkedin profile. One advantage linkedin provides is that it enables one to know the person even before he meets him in person for any business transaction. Linkedin has around 100 million registered users. This number is huge considering the fact that only working professionals use this site.

Among all the new bigwigs of Web 2.0, LinkedIn is the only site to have cashed out on its popularity, the IPO was well received (though termed by many even now as a bubble) valuing the company at USD 8.9 bln.

-          On last count, there were around 9 mln users of Linkedin in India. On a relative comparison, Linkedin is actually the web 2.0 which can boast of the most relevance in India (almost 10%) users from Indian making India its second largest market next to US (45 mln users). But Brazil which is growing at 400% YoY is playing catching game.

But it still suffers from image issues, LinkedIn is again just used similar to Facebook, where people do establish lots of connections but eventually there is no activity between the linked personnel. It is similar to setting up a telecom network in a building but not making calls, there is a latent capacity which seems to be untapped.

Even worse, any person starting a linkedin profile is considered to be searching for a job, in general raising a wrong notion about the site. Among those who have created profile, they hardly maintain the details of their profile, some assume it is too much go give out details of one professional life in the web.

4.       Groupon:

There are many marketing related sites and forward mail informing about discount. These kinds of campaigns either by mails or sites have for aged been ignored. But one company which has made a good use of this opportunity is Groupon.

The name is a combination of Group and Coupon. It enables collective bargaining model through website. The business model is pretty simple, site offers one deal per day, assuring the manufacturer a guaranteed amount of buyers. This deal details are sent to all users thro mailers. If the agreed amount of people subscribe (i.e. if they agree to buy the product), then they have to pay for it and get the product at a resulted reduced price.This site had received lots of patronage especially during the recession days, when people hatched good deals at a better price.

-          Groupon: has only been popular in US, it has its own other services in other markets. In India, the brand is hardly known by anyone. But the company recently acquired sosasta.com a similar modeled site. But there is hardly any proven patronage for such model in India, mainly owing to very poor internet penetration and mindset of Indians which is very averse to buying anything over the internet.

Conclusion:

Though, we have touched upon how relevant the bigwigs are in India, note that we have not discussed on their anticipated valuations in the market. This is actually a different stream and a huge topic on its own.

Sticking to the topic, the bottomline, one has to note among the bigwigs of web 2.0 is that they have been seen saturating in developed economies. The only avenue for them to grow is to enter the developing markets especially with BRIC countries (except for China in few cases). With that in context, India owing to its sheer denominator of users and English speaking population offers a very good platform for them to expand.

One focus areas for these sites is to make sure the apprehensions and the image they are currently carrying has to change. The marketing for these sites are very negligible in India, one has to make sure people understand the motive behind the sites to appreciate the actual usage. This will ensure a spurt in its number of users in India.

Let me know your views / comments by either replying to this blog or mailing to me at ganesh.dg@gmail.com

How the Cloud Computing could change the way we work in future....

Prelude:

Incidentally, the day I am writing this blog coincides with the annoucement of iCloud services by the Apple,  iCloud is expected to offer modes of storing your personal data in cloud, including streaming music.

Introduction:

Any company which is oblivious of the future technology has always seen it struggles to catch up. Most of its research cost is spent trying to catch up than leading the race. Even bitter is the situation of a company which thinks it doesn’t have the need to innovate owing to not being an IT company. They keep saying that it wants to concentrate on the core competency. But owing to their policy they end up spending more time and money than normal companies, as there are efforts to unlearn what they learnt and later they have to play catch up with the technology race. This leaves hardly any time to catch up with its competitors.

About cloud computing:

Any blog explaining effects of cloud computing should not start without explaining about Cloud in the beginning. Wikipedia states “Cloud computing refers to the on-demand provision of computational resources (data, software) via a computer network, rather than from a local computer”.  For first timers, with the mention of Cloud computing many of us start thinking infrastructure being available at remote location. But cloud extends to mean “applications made available on cloud”, “client systems being available on cloud” and “platform/solution stack being available on cloud”.

If interested one can read more about cloud computing using these links:

Wikipedia link                    : http://goo.gl/hx4Ax

Howstuffworks link         : http://goo.gl/8PTpR

Changes in workplaces owing to introduction of cloud computing:

Enough has been said about advantages of Cloud to the companies in various forums and news articles don’t want to reiterate that again. What I am trying is to give a glimpse of the how our workplace would have got changed once cloud computing is implemented to the hilt.

1.       Workstation to tablet:

Cloud environment would mean there is no requirement for employees to have dorky workstation nor even a heavier laptop. I understand people not liking term heavier laptop. All cloud would require is a simple tablet PC. Even something as simple as a netbook or a Samsung Galaxy Tab will do that job, as the processing ability and the storage has now moved to the server.

2.       Seating arrangements:

This might sound radical, but since the workplaces are not required to keep huge machines, organizations will see that there might be more synergy with making people seat in the groups. Of course the seats would be comfortable but not arranged like it is now. Especially those who do similar type of job. And the manager might actually like that fact that they might end up getting a bigger seat comparatively.

In fact, the best way to understand is ask your father on how his work desk was, during the days when there were no computer and just papers. Consider this adding a workstation (A monitor, A huge CPU, a power port etc.) was the main influencer in our current seating arrangement and made us seat the way we do now. With smaller slates / tablets in your hand such a requirement will mean futile waste of space.

3.       No projectors in the meetings:

Needless to say, henceforth you will not see any projectors in the meetings. All employees will have a tablet/netbook with their hand and using a projector would be meaningless instead we will see the screens shared and seen by all.

4.       Social-official Network replacing mailing systems

By the time cloud gathers pace, the intervention of social medium into our workplace would be unavoidable. Thus the mode of mailing would get divided into two, there would be an officially social model of mailing (very similar to chat/ message in Facebook) and another mode for would be the traditional e-mailing service for confidential mails or mails with attachments.

5.       Connectivity the key to success:

One difference to the way we work would be the connectivity. Unlike current scenario, there would be no way one would be able to work offline. Especially given the fact that all would be having netbook sort of devices which are uber mobile. This would lead the need of having greater connectivity.

6.       Yippie no more backing up:

If you are paranoid about backing your system often, owing to your scare of losing data from your PC, then there is some good news. One advantage from the cloud computing is that there is no need to back up your system. The back-up would happen at the server level.

7.       Content Delivery Network (CDN) heard of them before:

If you have not heard of the companies performing CDN activities like Akamai/ Azure/ Contendo/ CDnetworks, then brace yourself. In the age of cloud computing the CDN companies are going to play a major role. Typically CDN are those who provide access of the website to the last mile user. They make sure the contents are delivered to the users even for those who have thin server. This is normally used by companies for their external facing sites. But owing to cloud computing these will be used even for sites within the companies.

Conclusion:

The above points are just my impression on how the world / workplace would have changed when cloud is introduced. Not all might be practical. Keep your comments coming to help me vision the scenario better.
Drop a comment below or drop a mail to me @ ganesh.dg@gmail.com in case if you have anything to share.

Why Dream of Indian Automotive Growth might not see the light of the day

First a look into what the leading economist are predicting

Just like any other stats, China is a statistician’s delight with any figures that it produces.  With the vehicle sales figures it is no exception.

Take this for stats, China vehicle sales in 1992 was 1 mln which has increased to 18 mln in 2010, which is higher than even US. That’s not it.

But that increase has not been with a gradual CAGR, between 1960 and 2002 China vehicle density rose from 0.38 to 16 vehicles owned per 1000 people but between 2002 to 2008, Chinese vehicle ownership more than doubled, to 37 vehicles per 1000. Now that’s phenomenal. People credit this take off in ownership to a factor, per capita income in China went beyond $4000 in 2002. (src: http://goo.gl/oRkD3).

Now enough of China data, but that’s where my mention of China ends.

A look into the Indian scenario

We need to come to the main topic tonight. No data on China ends without comparison of India. That’s where I am concerned. Vehicle density in India is currently at 15 per 1000 and percapita income is $3300 which is romancing with the benchmark $4000. The expectation is once percapita of India touches $4000 the vehicles sales will take off just like how China did post 2002. This is expected to increase to 110 in 2030.

That’s where I disagree, and think the so called “Dream of Indian Automotive Growth” might not be true after all. This is purely my personal opinion.

Few simple reasons where I feel statisticians/economist might have gone wrong:

1.    Crumpling infrastructure:

One must understand that India is a country which has developed taking the short-cut than developing organically. Normal mode of growth of any economy is from agrarian to industry based and later service industry. This would imply that for the industry to grow economy would have ensured a supporting infrastructure. But India’s development is backed not by industrial growth but by service industry growth (in this case by growth of IT and ITES). This has made sure that people have good income but the necessary infrastructure is still not in place as a base. Which would actually work as a deterrent for anyone planning to buy a car, as his daily commute is filled with traffic jams. There is no place to park cars etc.

2.    Motorcycle factor

The numbers of previous BRIC countries have been taken into consideration while calculating the latent demand of vehicles in India. But one factor which India has was easily missed out. Indian middle class loves to travel in the motorcycle. This does ensure elasticity on people who are moving upwards in their income ladder. In India there is a situation where even people who earn around USD 20,000 travel in motorcycle to their office for the sake of economy and the ease of travelling during the rush hour. Unlike China which like many economist say migrated from cycle to car, there is motorcycle in India in-between.

3.    Excise regulations:

Indian taxation rules tend to increase the cost of vehicle by around 20-25% notice all the developing markets where the ownership rates are near 100 per 1000. The excise is near 5%. This should actually mean the benchmark of USD 4000 should actually be increased to USD 5000 atleast.

4.    Taxation on petrol:

Make a list of countries where the fuel costs are costliest, India will surely figure among the top 5. Reason is unlike other country the taxation is one of the main sources funding exchequer in India, which the govt will not be ready to give up all that easily. Now combine costly fuel with the hours spent in the rush hour traffic. Motorcycle makes more sense, no wonder.

5.    Misconceived size of Indian middle class.

Right from Bush the size of Indian middle class has always been misinterpreted to be around 300 million, but the actual size of Indian middle class (who are the potential market people) is only 40-50 million.

6.    Traditional mindset on House then car.

The moment a family has significant disposable income they are first invested in getting a home than getting a car. Unlike other markets where the vehicle sale has shot up, the Indian mindset fixes priority to house than car. Of course there is exception to this rule, state like Delhi where a family investment goes to a car before house. But not all states share the mindset.

7.    Inflation vis a vis the Increment

One killer market killer in India is the inflation, every time a house hold income increases. They realize that the cost of maintaining the family also increases equally. This results in nullified increase in the income of the family. Even if the actual income can afford a vehicle, the family will tend to set aside amount for the scare of increasing expenses.

8.    Car re-cycle:

For the car sales to increase in a market, the users have to get into the cycle of replacing a car frequently. Meaning atleast once in 5 years similar to many mature markets, Indian cars are run for atleast 7-8 years.

9.   Uninformed buying decision compared to China.

Though it doesn’t have a direct impact on the vehicle number sold, but unlike mature markets and developing markets like Brazil, China and Europe Indian car buying decision are predominantly based on hearsay than research. Thus the traditional carmakers tend to make more sales than new entrants.

Conclusion:

I am not saying that I hate Indian auto industry expanding. It should sound foolhardy to say what many economists predict as incorrect. But all I am just saying that the details being tracked by the many economists is merely based on extrapolation. A look into the ground reality would make them rework on the targets and set some realistic dates. In my opinion, the current spurt in the growth of vehicles will only sustain till 2014-15. Post which Indian market will start to stagnate, unless there are a change in atleast two of the factors mentioned above. Nevertheless, it’s a great time to speculate.

Dilemma of recruiting a fresher: Points companies always forget when recruiting freshers

Ask any HR Manager of an 800+ headcount company or any VP of a company as to what his nightmare has been one standard response would be retaining freshers of the company.

One must distinguish fresher here are of two categories, ETs and MTs i.e. Engineering trainees and Management Trainees. The strategy and the cost of these two categories might be different but the root cause for them leaving the company is same nevertheless. Will discuss on that later.

It has been seen on average that somewhere around 50% of the fresh talents tend to leave the company and move on, as quick as within 18 months of joining. That is the stats for Indian companies, for foreign countries I am told the rate of people leaving is even more.

When one considers the investment put on fresher, cost spent to retain them, time spent on fresher HR managers get to think was it worth all the effort to recruit a fresher note that it has been mentioned that UK companies loose around GBP 350 mln every year just on fresh talents (Src: http://goo.gl/Hysr1)

This is not a small problem at all. I agree to have a better idea we must see both perspectives to get to the ground of the problem.

Just like any argument I agree it has both sides, but let me try to put some main points across on why freshers quit within 18 months:

1. Directionless-ness:

The companies show much enthusiasm in recruiting freshers, but all the fiesta ends with recruitment. Many of the employees recruited are left with managers who most of the time have no idea on what kind of job can be given to a fresher.

A good manager makes the company’s job easier to retain the talent

2. Motivation:

A fresher needs to have a sense of fulfillment when he gets into a company. But depts. invariably give a task like correcting total of big sheet, noting down Minutes etc. This makes him loose his urge to stay back in the company.

Companies assume salary is the decider but that’s just half the case. Giving him right set of task is the actual challenge.

3. Peer Pressure:

One major challenge is there are few companies especially bigger ones where fresher is not given any crucial tasks, but his classmate in other companies (relatively smaller) assign him critical tasks, which makes the person A to feel ignored in his company.

4. Offers when completing one year:

This is the point where most of the company gets it wrong.

It is the cue which every HR manager misses out. There are lots of companies out there who do not take chances with fresh grads, but everyone in the market is looking out for a 1+ year exp person. That being the case a resource that the recruiting company still sees as a fresher is a potential candidate for someone else. The employee normally who is 50-50 about looking out starts getting calls when he completes 12-15 months. He feels proud of having been able to prove his worth to the company which still treats him as a fresher. He surely chooses the one he feels values him more.

Companies out to change its manner in which it treats a one year old.

5. Distinction between Engineering trainees and Management trainees:

Companies get this one wrong too. Companies hire engineers and try to get them management roles, and vice versa. This produced a confused team of freshers.

E.g. Companies ask an engineering grad to play a role of Asst. Project Lead / Business Analyst. For a grad looking for programming and excelling in coding. These kinds of roles hardly interest him. (Though I must say there are lots of people who get thro this and excel in their job, but let us not take exceptions as examples).

Alternately, there are companies who hire Tier 2 MBA grads (especially in India) and give them operational jobs like programming, Monitoring calls, Quality testing etc. These are again an insult to injury already faced by him.

Conclusion:

I have been in roles mentioned above: as a fresher, as first year dude, as a mentor to a fresher and as a manager to a fresher. One thing that has stuck me always is:

One must understand that recruiting is more of a marketing function than analysis function. Recruiting a fresher is like Marketing to a customer new to the market and retaining him is like retaining a new customer. It takes a good deal to understand his needs, mentoring them, and making them realize their importance in the organization.

Remember the marketing rules, ensuring the new customer is happy will make sure he remains loyal to brand for a long time. Likewise ensure the fresher is happy in the few initial years he will remain loyal to the company and will one day become a great asset to the company.

About Me...and what xingminds stands for..

About myself:

Frankly There is nothing much to talk about myself.
For those who need to understand the meaning of word XingMinds. Its about topics that I plan to Blog on, its not going to based on one straight topic, planning to write about topics crossing on different fieilds and talking about crossing different minds. Thats why CrossingMinds (XingMinds)

But anyway for those who do not know me.
I work for Automotive industry and I work in the IT department. I currently take care of application helping the Digital Strategy of Ford for APA region. I must say its one field in which there is loads of things to learn.
One thing about me is that I have worked in different IT functions of the Automotive industry to be bold enough to claim that I know the business quite well. Mind the fact that I am not saying I know everything.

Have been bought up in suburbs of Chennai and have completed Masters in Business Administration. But I must confess of what I have learned, hardly 5% of it is credited to my degrees.
Some questions one might have:


1. Why blogging?
a. Frankly tried everything to vent out whats in my mind. But still feel FB, Twitter and Linkedin is not the right medium thats why resorting to Blogging, hope it works

2. What will be blogs be about? 
a. Like I mentioned earlier, will try to discuss / write on different topics that interests me. Like Automobile, IT industry, Management, Project Management, Issues in organization. Especially those for which I feel like venting out whats in my mind..

3. Target Audience?
a. Like any marketing campaign, even blogs need to have a target readers. Mine is the grads who are working, feeling they can make the change, but are not empowered to do so.

4. Frequency:
How frequently am I planning to blog. I have set the rate to a blog a week. So that I can think out as to what to write before I write anything